Learn Kelly Criterion Sports Betting Strategy


All betting strategies have their advantages and disadvantages. Some strategies have more advocates than others, while others have more critics. No MM88POWER strategy is foolproof. However, players who can use strategy often outperform players who don’t. The same applies to investors with and without strategy. One of the key strategies used by both investors and bettors is the Kelly Criterion.

What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is an important strategy. The strategy is suitable for a variety of real-life applications such as financing, investing, betting, portfolio management, risk management, and more. In fact, the Kelly Criteria strategy was originally developed for a very different field. Today, the strategy has been applied in several other areas. The original theory was proposed by John Kelly in the 1950s. He initially used the strategy to help telcos reduce static noise over long distances. However, the same strategy has also found its way into the stock market and betting markets. Even Warren Buffett, the greatest investor of our generation, reportedly used the Kelly Criterion when investing in stocks. Bettors use a very similar version of Kelly’s standard strategy. The Kelly Criterion is used to estimate bet sizes and wagers.

An example of the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Standard Strategy helps bettors determine the optimal bet size for any given bet. Players can calculate the optimal bet size by:

Consider the odds – in a match between two opponents, one may have a slight advantage over the other. So let’s assume a player has a 75% chance of winning the bet. Bettors also have a 25% chance of losing the same bet.
Win Probability – Players must then convert the 75% win probability to a 0.75 probability. After this transformation, the probability must be multiplied by 2. Therefore, the player has 0.75 * 2 = 1.5.
Subtract One – Next, the bettor must subtract one from the current total. This gives 1.5-1 = 0.5.
Optimal bet size – Based on the above outputs, the Kelly Criteria recommends an optimal bet size of 50% of the player’s total stake.
Features of the strategy
Key features of the Kelly Criterion include betting average bet​​​, betting on multiple outcomes, estimated bet size, and more. In addition, some criticisms have led to alternative theories, such as partial betting on the Kelly criterion.

1. Even betting app
Kelly Criteria applies to even-money bets. It is easier for one to calculate odds and bet sizes with just two consecutive outcomes. An example of even money betting is betting on the win or loss of a football match, where a draw is not considered. Therefore, the Kelly Criterion is an easy strategy to understand and apply, especially for beginners.

2. Estimated bet size
The most common application of the Kelly Criterion by individual bettors and investors is estimating a bet or bet size. This helps bettors make an optimal allocation of available resources. The optimal allocation of resources ensures the best returns. Evaluating bets can be difficult because betting too much on risk equates to losses. On the other hand, under betting on winning bets can result in missing out on potential gains.

3. Request for multiple betting results
Players can also bet on sporting events with multiple betting outcomes. Horse racing, greyhound racing, etc. using Kelly criteria are examples of various betting outcomes. However, with more betting outcomes and multiple probabilities, it becomes a bit more difficult to account for all variables when estimating the optimal bet size.

5. Risk level
Not all bettors are able to target the optimal bet size. This is because every player is limited by their betting bankroll, betting style and long-term strategy. Additionally, gamblers who want to bet on multiple games over a period of time may be less willing to spend 50% or more of their stake on a single bet. In fact, it is recommended that most players bet no more than 6% of their bankroll at one time.

criticize
The Kelly Standard strategy has been criticized because in many cases, players may need to bet 50% or more of their bankroll. It is possible to lose the entire bet amount. However, players are advised to use a form of the Kelly Criterion tailored to the player’s betting style. Such as partial betting or limit betting.

Kelly Standard Partial Bet
Players looking to reduce the level of risk and beta associated with the Kelly Criterion can employ a fractional wagering strategy. A person can set a high risk tolerance (e.g. up to 6%). Or players can set a low risk tolerance (e.g. below 2%). Based on the specified bankroll percentage, the person with the best stake of 50% (from the example above) will bet 50 * 2 = 1.00% of the bankroll in a single bet.


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